Federal Election 2025: All you need to know

ByAndrew Mirams

Pre-election market uncertainty

Elections typically bring a swathe of uncertainty to property markets as both buyers and sellers wait to see which party – and their policies – will win.

Auction clearance rates and property listings can also dive in the weeks before an election.

But I want to reassure buyers not to be misled by these typical pre-election jitters as this uncertainty can be the perfect time for buyers to jump into the market.

Sellers shouldn’t needlessly worry either as consumer confidence historically returns to property markets shortly after an election, regardless of which party is successful.

It’s also important to remember that issues such as interest rates and the overall economy are far more likely to have an immediate, major impact on the property market than parties and their policies.

This being said, proposals to restrict negative gearing and capital gains tax (CGT) in the 2019 federal election led to property investors becoming understandably nervous.

Other government policies in recent years such as housing affordability schemes for first home buyers have also had an impact on market activity.

ALP and Coalition housing policies

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and his Labor team are still working on delivering housing promises from the 2022 election, which does not bode well for this year’s election.

The ALP’s shared equity Help to Buy scheme, which was only signed off last year, aims to help 40,000 low and middle-income families buy a home.

Mr Albanese’s National Housing Accord – wherein 1.2 million new homes will be built in five years, starting in July 2024 (which equates to 60,000 homes per quarter) – is also off to a slow start with few property experts, including myself, confident that such an agenda will be met.

The $10 billion Housing Australia Future Fund (HAFF) – in which 30,000 new social and affordable rental homes are to be constructed in five years – is another questionable ALP plan which has had a rocky, if not downright troubled, start.

While HAFF was established in November 2023, with the second round of funding beginning in December 2024, only 358 homes had been completed as of last month, according to data from HAFF itself.

Also, just last month, Treasurer Jim Chalmers announced a proposal for lenders to drop first-home buyers’ HECS-HELP debts, in another bid to help this group enter the property market.

While this proposal may help first home buyers, it could also push up already high house prices even higher, as more home buyers enter the market.

In this way, it’s unlikely to go down well with existing homeowners.

Meanwhile, Peter Dutton’s Liberal-National Coalition party has an entire webpage devoted to delivering more affordable housing.

Mr Dutton’s biggest and most expensive plan for doing this is his $5 billion infrastructure idea which would fund the construction of roads, sewerage, water and other crucial infrastructure.

This would in turn enable the construction of 500,000 new houses in five years.

In a major difference to the ALP’s ambitious and expensive Housing Accord, Mr Dutton’s idea would focus on greenfield areas and detached houses for average Australians, rather than social and affordable houses in infill areas.

But similar to the ALP’s National Housing Accord plan, the Coalition’s billion-dollar infrastructure plan has been met with scepticism, particularly as the Coalition hasn’t revealed exactly how the plan will be implemented.

Another major housing policy for the Coalition would enable first home buyers to purchase a property via immediate access to a $50,000 lump sum from their superannuation fund. 

This sum would need to be returned to the super fund when the house is sold.

Admittedly, this idea bears a strong resemblance to the ALP’s First Home Super Saver (FHSS) scheme.

But either way, this idea is being met with concerns, and not just from super funds. 

As with the ALP’s HECS-HELP debt relief idea, the Coalition’s super proposal could simply push house prices up further while also reducing buyers’ retirement savings.

In a bid to see more homes built, faster, the Coalition also wants to freeze changes to the National Construction Code for 10 years.

This idea has architects and developers worried as these groups argue it could result in low-quality, unsafe properties which will cost more in the long run.

Then there’s the Coalition’s proposal to cut migration figures by 25% and introduce a two-year ban on foreign investors and temporary residents purchasing existing homes.

Greens and United Australia Party (UAP)/Trumpet of Patriots (ToP) housing policies

As with the two major parties, the Greens and the UAP – now officially re-registered as Trumpet of Patriots (ToP) – are focused on producing more, and cheaper housing for renters and home buyers.

As a start, the Greens are proposing to spend $5.2 billion over four years on 50,000 “supportive tenancies” for homeless people, with 20,000 of the places to be set aside for at-risk youth.

The party also wants to introduce a Renters Protection Authority which would cap rent increases to 2% every two years.

And, you guessed it, the party also wants to phase out negative gearing and CGT “tax handouts” to “wealthy property investors”.

I think someone forgot to tell the Greens that the typical Australian property investor is not uber wealthy.

The latest ATO statistics – admittedly from the 2020-21 financial year – found only 20% of Australian tax payers are property investors, and of these people, the largest number (71.48%) only own one investment property.

Plus, as I mentioned, the negative gearing and CGT furore in 2019’s federal election saw property investors get very nervous. Meanwhile, many have left the market in Victoria in response to the state’s 2024 land tax changes and the overall push towards tenants’ rights, rather than investors.

The Greens’ plan is therefore likely to deter more investors from the market at a time when our renters need a place to stay more than ever.

Go figure.

Moving on, however: the Greens have also proposed creating a federally-owned public developer, which will rent and sell 610,000 affordable homes to be built over the next decade.

Seventy per cent of these homes will be rentals with capped rent, with 30% will be sold to first home buyers who could save $249,000 on these properties.

Unfortunately for the Greens, technically, only state and territory governments can cap or freeze rents.

The party also wants to introduce a discount mortgage called HomeKeeper which the Big Five banks would offer to all home buyers and which would have a regulated rate of no more than 1% above the cash rate.

Similarly, Clive Palmer’s ToP is still pushing its 2022 federal election policy of a 3% interest rate cap on all home loans.

The ToP also plans to introduce yet another super fund idea for buyers, in which they could use this money to fund up to 30% of their home loan deposit. Additionally, Palmer wants to see more properties open to renters.

With Mr Palmer being a keen supporter and follower of US President Donald Trump – and that includes the president’s recently introduced tariffs – anything is possible, I suppose.

However, I beg to differ with his belief that 4% interest rate will result in 60% of Australians defaulting on their mortgage, while over 80% will lose their homes if their interest rate rises to 6% or higher – ultimately ending in the property market collapsing and being invaded by foreign buyers.

Whoever wins the upcoming federal election, and regardless of whether you’re a first home buyer or an experienced property investor, rest assured that the mortgage broking team at Intuitive Finance can give you that expert support and advice you need.

Andrew Mirams
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