What does Labour’s election win mean for Australia’s property market?
After their extraordinary election victory this month with an absolute routing of the Liberal party, Australians must now settle in for three more years of Labor at the helm. So, what does Labor’s federal election win last weekend mean for Australia’s property market, and how will their second term play out?
As I see it, there’s little to be excited about, as Mr Albanese is still working on delivering housing promises from the 2022 election. For example, the ALP’s shared equity Help to Buy was only signed off last year. Mr Albanese’s National Housing Accord – which promises that 1.2 million new homes will be built in the next five years– is also failing to gain momentum.
The $10 billion Housing Australia Future Fund (HAFF) is yet another struggling ALP plan with only 358 of the 30,000 new social and affordable rental homes promised completed as of March.
March 2025 also saw the announcement of Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ plan for lenders to drop first-home buyers’ HECS-HELP debts – an idea met with doubt by many in the industry as it could result in higher house prices. There’s also the monetary factor of these policies to be considered, which are now costed at more than $43 billion.
With Australia’s gross national debt now at $801.7 billion and predicted to hit $1 trillion by September, no one – least of all the ALP – has a clear idea of where or how to find $43 billion. Thus, the wariness from the property industry about a second term under Albo.
Election campaign property policies
In just one of Albo’s expanded second-hand housing policies announced during the election campaign, the barely begun Help to Buy scheme will enjoy an $800 million extension.
Another policy – costing a mere $10 billion – will see 100,000 new homes built for first home buyers.
In two other policies aimed at increasing housing supplies, $54 million will go towards the prefabricated and modular property sector while $2 billion will be given to state government concessional loans across the next four years.
The recycled Home Guarantee deposit scheme for first homebuyers will be expanded as well. These buyers can now purchase a home with a five per cent deposit, regardless of their location or income, with property price limits also set higher.
This dangerous scheme which sees the federal government acting as guarantor for first home buyers could also further inflate property prices.
To give Albo some due, however, he has promised $78 million for the creation of an Advanced Entry Trades Training program, which will fast track 6000 tradies’ qualifications. As an added incentive for tradies to work in the housing construction industry, apprentices will collect an extra $10,000 in payments, on top of their usual salary.
With over 83,000 tradies needed yesterday to achieve Albo’s National Housing Accord policy as well as his plan to build 100,000 new homes for new home buyers, I for one, applaud this idea, as do Master Builders Australia.
Extra tradies don’t solve the continuing issue of high building costs and supply challenges, but something is better than nothing.
What happens now?
Now that the election dust has settled, first-home buyers are hoping for a kinder property market.
Yet few, if any, housing policy surprises reared their heads during this year’s election campaign, with the ALP choosing to hoist the flag higher on its 2022 election policies.
This strategy won voters in the end, and by a long chalk too, but industry experts, including myself, are already warning Albo not to lose any time helping every Australian purchase or rent an affordable home.
Commentators are also warning the ALP that their second term win means they’ll meet far less patience from Aussies who have already waited three years for 2022 property policies to see the light of day.
Yet if there’s anything to be learned from this year’s election and that of 2022, it’s that political property policies move very slowly, regardless of the billions of dollars spent on them.
Federal election data gathered from the last seven events have also found that regardless of the major winning party’s policies, property market growth is minimal.
House prices increased 3.1 per cent under the Coalition, only one per cent more than that of the ALP.
The latter party also saw 34.4 per cent of first homebuyers begin an owner-occupier loan, just 3.9 per cent above that of the Coalition’s period.
Finally, other crucial points are also at play in our property market including cash rates, inflation, employment figures, and let’s not forget the impact of US President Donald Trump’s global tariffs.
For now, I would advise first homebuyers examine these points closely and explore how federal and state government schemes may be able to help you. Ultimately, however, it is better to participate in the market as soon as you’re able rather than letting political policy dictate when you buy. This is because property ownership over the long term tends to smooth short-term volatility.
That said, for those who’ve only waited until the election was over before buying, contact our experts at Intuitive Finance who can help you secure the best possible financing for your needs
