Australia’s latest demographic stats

Demographics drives our property markets.

In fact over the long term, demographics is more important to what happens to property than short term influences like interest rates or consumer confidence.

So let’s look at some of the latest ABS demographic data, which was recently released for the period up to June 30th last year.

Estimated resident population: census people demographic measure population statistics data

  • The preliminary estimated resident population (ERP) of Australia at 30 June 2016 was 24,127,200 people. This is an increase of 337,800 people since 30 June 2015, and 78,600 people since 31 March 2016.
  • The preliminary estimate of natural increase for the year ended 30 June 2016 (155,700 people) was 2.6%, or 3,900 people higher than the natural increase recorded for the year ended 30 June 2015 (151,800 people).
  • The preliminary estimate of net overseas migration (NOM) for the year ended 30 June 2016 (182,200 people) was 3.0%, or 5,300 people higher than the net overseas migration recorded for the year ended 30 June 2015 (176,900 people).

Population growth by state and territory in 2015-16

table-1

Source: ABS

Population growth rates

  • Australia’s population grew by 1.4% during the year ended 30 June 2016.
  • Natural increase and NOM contributed 46.1% and 53.9% respectively to total population growth for the year ended 30 June 2016.
  • All states and territories recorded positive population growth in the year ended 30 June 2016.
  • Victoria recorded the highest growth rate of all states and territories at 2.1%. The Northern Territory recorded the lowest growth rate at 0.2%.

state-growth-2016

Source ABS and id.com

Components of population growth

The growth of Australia’s population has two components:

  1. natural increase (the number of births minus the number of deaths) and
  2. net overseas migration (NOM).

The contribution to population growth for the year ended 30 June 2016 was higher from NOM (53.9%) than from natural increase (46.1%).

COMPONENTS OF ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH(a)(b), Australia
Graph: COMPONENTS OF ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH(a)(b), Australia

Natural Increase

The preliminary estimate of natural increase for the year ended 30 June 2016 was 155,700 people, an increase of 2.6%, or 3,900 people, compared with natural increase for the year ended 30 June 2015 (151,800 people).

Births

The preliminary estimate of births for the year ended 30 June 2016 (315,500 births) increased by 7,900 births from the year ended 30 June 2015 (307,700 births).

Deaths

The preliminary estimate of deaths for the year ended 30 June 2016 (159,900 deaths) increased by 4,000 deaths from the year ended 30 June 2015 (155,900 deaths).

Net Overseas Migrationimmigration

For the year ended 30 June 2016, Australia’s preliminary net overseas migration (NOM) estimate was 182,200 people.

This was 3.0% (5,300 people) higher than the net overseas migration estimated for the year ended 30 June 2015 (176,900 people).

NOM arrivals increased by 2.5% (11,700 people) between the years ended 30 June 2015 (471,000 people) and 30 June 2016 (482,700 people).

NOM departures increased by 2.2% (6,400 people) between the years ended 30 June 2015 (294,100 people) and 30 June 2016 (300,500 people).

The preliminary NOM estimate for the June quarter 2016 (31,400 people) was 4.4% (1,300 people) higher than the estimate for the June quarter 2015 (30,000 people).

How do we compare with the rest of the world?

For the 12 months ended 30 June 2016, Australia’s population growth rate of 1.4% was above that of the world at 1.2%.

Australia is growing at a faster rate that New Zealand and the United States of America (both 0.7%0, the United Kingdom (0.6%) and Canada (1.0%).map world population people

Some countries that experienced faster growth than Australia were the Philippines (1.6%), Singapore (1.8%) and Papua New Guinea (2.1%).

According to figures from the United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs, Australia’s population ranked 53rd highest in the world in 2015 (decreasing from 52nd in 2014) and is projected to rank 61st by 2050.

By 2050, India is projected to have displaced China as the most populous country with 1.7 billion people compared with 1.35 billion in China.

POPULATION, GROWTH RATE AND RANK – Summary(a)

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ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION
PROJECTED POPULATION
RANK
ecblank.gif
2014(b)
2015(b)
Growth Rate
2050
2015
2050
Selected Countries
million
million
%
million
no.
no.

Australia
24
24
1.4
38
53
61
Canada
36
36
1.0
44
38
47
China (excl. SARs and Taiwan)
1 369
1 376
0.5
1 348
1
2
France
64
64
0.4
71
22
27
Greece
11
11
-0.4
10
81
102
Hong Kong (SAR of China)
7
7
0.8
8
103
111
India
1 295
1 311
1.2
1 705
2
1
Indonesia
254
258
1.2
322
4
5
Italy
60
60
57
23
33
Japan
127
127
-0.2
107
11
17
Korea (South)
50
50
0.4
51
27
39
Malaysia
30
30
1.4
41
44
54
New Zealand
5
5
0.7
6
125
127
Papua New Guinea
7
8
2.1
13
100
85
Philippines
99
101
1.6
148
12
13
Singapore
6
6
1.8
7
114
116
South Africa
54
54
1.0
66
24
29
Sweden
10
10
0.8
12
90
90
United Kingdom
64
65
0.6
75
21
24
United States of America
319
322
0.7
389
3
4
Viet Nam
92
93
1.1
113
14
16
World
7 266
7 349
1.2
9 725

 Source: A.B.S 
Michael Yardney

Michael Yardney

Michael is a director of Metropole Property Strategists who create wealth for their clients through independent, unbiased property advice and advocacy. He's been voted Australia's leading property investment adviser and his opinions are regularly featured in the media.
Michael Yardney

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