First Home Buyers: Why Now Is a Rare Window to Buy

If you’re a first home buyer sitting on the fence right now, wondering whether you should wait another six months, another year, or until “the market crashes”, I completely understand.

It’s one of the biggest financial decisions you’ll ever make, and when headlines are filled with property predictions, budget announcements and market commentary, it can feel impossible to know what the right move is.

But from where I sit as a mortgage broker, helping first home buyers navigate the market every day, I genuinely believe we’re seeing a window of opportunity that hasn’t existed for some time.

No, I don’t think everyone should rush out and buy tomorrow just because of FOMO.

But if you’ve been saving, building your deposit, improving your borrowing capacity and waiting for the right conditions, there are several reasons why now deserves serious consideration.

The Federal Budget Has Shifted the Playing Field

One of the biggest announcements in the recent Federal Budget was the Government’s commitment to improving housing affordability and creating a fairer path into home ownership.

Alongside expanded first home buyer support measures, the Budget introduced significant reforms to negative gearing and capital gains tax arrangements, with the intention of reducing investor demand for established housing and directing more investment toward new housing supply. The Government has described these changes as creating “a better tax system for workers, first home buyers and future generations.”

Whether you agree with every aspect of the reforms or not, one thing is becoming increasingly clear: first home buyers are being given a greater opportunity to compete in parts of the market that have historically been dominated by investors.

And that’s where things get interesting.

Investors Are Starting to Step Back

For decades, investors have been one of the biggest sources of competition for entry-level properties.

The typical first home buyer isn’t usually competing for a $3 million mansion in Toorak, Manly or New Farm. They’re competing for the townhouse, unit or villas in the sub-$1 million price bracket. And historically, investors have been right there bidding alongside them.

The recent Budget changes have altered that equation, and I am seeing it firsthand.

With negative gearing on established properties set to be restricted for future purchases and tax incentives increasingly directed toward new housing supply, many investors are reassessing their strategies not to mention us mortgage brokers having to navigate the lenders shift in policies to account for this in their servicing tests.

Multiple market commentators and economists expect investor demand for established homes to soften as a result.

The Commonwealth Bank’s post-Budget housing outlook noted that the reforms should reduce investor competition in the established housing market, which is one of the clearest affordability benefits for first home buyers.

In simple terms?

The people you’ve often been competing against may no longer be standing beside you at the auction.

That’s not something first home buyers have been able to say very often over the last decade.

In fact, it’s already happening. In May, 2026 new analysis has just shown that in Victoria alone, 642 less investment properties now exist (total of 1091 rentable bedrooms) most likely sold to 1^st home buyers taking these out of the rental pool.

And this isn’t restricted to Victoria with recent research from property analytics group FoundIt indicated there were 5447 rental home sales across the country over May and only 3915 new rental purchases.

A few Buyers Advocates I have been talking to can also attest for this being on the ground at auctions seeing the shift in buyers under the sub-$1 million bracket.

The Latest Housing Data Suggests Buyers Have More Choice

One of the most common questions I get asked is:

“But what if prices fall after I buy?”

The reality is that no one has a crystal ball. However, what we’re seeing in the latest housing data is a market that is becoming more balanced.

Across many parts of Australia, particularly Melbourne and Sydney, listing volumes have decreased and conditions have become less frenzied than they were during the boom years. Market commentators are reporting that buyers now have more stock to choose from and more negotiating power than we’ve seen for some time.

CoreLogic’s recent analysis of first home buyer activity has also highlighted increasing competition at the lower-priced end of the market, reinforcing just how important this segment has become.

What this means for buyers is simple:

You have more opportunities to compare properties, conduct due diligence and make decisions based on strategy rather than fear of missing out.

That’s a much healthier environment than the one many buyers faced just a few years ago.

Waiting Could Mean Facing More Competition Later

This is the part many people overlook.

A lot of first home buyers assume that waiting is the “safe” option.

But what happens if interest rates begin easing again?

What happens if confidence returns to the market?

What happens if more buyers who are currently sitting on the sidelines decide to jump back in?

Competition increases.

We’ve seen this story play out repeatedly throughout Australian property cycles.

The best buying opportunities often exist during periods of uncertainty, when fewer people are willing to act.

Once confidence returns, the market tends to move quickly.

While some analysts are forecasting softer price growth or modest declines in certain markets following the Budget changes, most are not predicting a dramatic collapse. Treasury modelling referenced in post-Budget analysis points to slower growth and improved affordability rather than a widespread market correction.

This Isn’t About Timing the Market Perfectly

One thing I tell clients all the time is that the perfect time to buy rarely exists.

There will always be a reason to wait.

Interest rates.
Elections.
Federal Budgets.
Market uncertainty.
Media headlines.

If you spend your life waiting for every variable to align perfectly, you may never feel ready.

Instead, I encourage buyers to focus on the things they can control:

Building a realistic budget.
Understanding their borrowing capacity. (Hey, that’s where I come in)
Having a genuine savings buffer.
Choosing a property that suits their long-term goals.
Making sure the repayments are comfortable.

If those pieces are in place, today’s market conditions present some compelling advantages that haven’t existed for quite some time.

My Perspective

As someone who works with first home buyers every day, I genuinely believe we’re entering a period where owner-occupiers have a stronger opportunity to get ahead.

Government policy is increasingly focused on supporting first home buyers.

Investor demand in the established market is likely to soften.

Buyers have more choice than they did during the height of the market.

And importantly, many people are still sitting on the sidelines waiting for certainty.

For the right buyer, that combination creates opportunity.

Will property prices always go up? No.

Will every suburb perform the same? Absolutely not.

But if you’ve been working towards buying your first home and you’ve been waiting for a genuine window to enter the market with less investor competition and more negotiating power, I believe that window is open right now.

And for many first home buyers, that could be the opportunity they’ve been waiting for.